Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2208 at 12:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2208 United Flight history →	STT 12:00	IAH 16:15	10%	5%	0.8%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 18m Dulles	IAD 22:16 → IAH 00:25 +1UA 1463	8h 40m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	9h 24m	96%	75%
United Details →	STT 14:03 → EWR 18:29UA 1530	2h 36m Newark	EWR 21:05 → IAH 23:58UA 2425	10h 55m	96%	73%
American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943	3h 33m Miami	MIA 20:13 → IAH 22:05AA 2230	9h 25m	97%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON