tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4136 at 14:42, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4136 Southwest STT 14:42 MCO 18:01 20% 5% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445 1h 35m Dulles IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 +1UA 689 8h 16m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → STT 12:00 → IAH 16:15UA 2208 2h 11m Houston IAH 18:26 → MCO 21:58UA 2451 9h 58m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MCO 00:15 +1DL 1162 8h 42m 96% 67%
UnitedDetails → STT 14:03 → EWR 18:29UA 1530 2h 27m Newark EWR 20:56 → MCO 23:58UA 1190 9h 55m 96% 66%
JetBlueDetails → STT 15:48 → SJU 16:30B6 435 2h 14m San Juan SJU 18:44 → MCO 22:04B6 2134 6h 16m 92% 62%
AmericanDetails → STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943 2h 01m Miami MIA 18:41 → MCO 20:01AA 2803 6h 21m 97% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943 53m Miami MIA 17:33 → MCO 18:46AA 1610 5h 06m 72% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON