Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 943 at 13:40, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 943 American Flight history →	STT 13:40	MIA 16:40	25%	8%	1.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 12:00 → IAH 16:15UA 2208	2h 46m Houston	IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829	10h 40m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	9h 22m	97%	68%
United Details →	STT 14:03 → EWR 18:29UA 1530	2h 04m Newark	EWR 20:33 → MIA 23:44UA 791	9h 41m	95%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON