Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 34–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 435 JetBlue Flight history →	STT 15:48	SJU 16:30	34%	13%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
B6 808 JetBlue Flight history →	STT 14:00	SJU 14:40	37%	12%	0.9%	73%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:40AA 943	2h 09m Miami	MIA 18:49 → SJU 21:23AA 1689	7h 43m	97%	66%
United Details →	STT 14:03 → EWR 18:29UA 1530	1h 16m Newark	EWR 19:45 → SJU 23:50UA 1543	9h 47m	86%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON