Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27DL 4037 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 07m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	5h 57m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696	7h 05m	100%	73%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:35 → LAX 20:57UA 1460	7h 19m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON