Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 14:38, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Denver	DEN 20:19 → ORD 23:41UA 377	8h 03m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → ORD 21:20DL 2413	7h 10m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON