Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 533 at 07:16, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 533 American Flight history →	SYR 07:16	DFW 09:50	12%	3%	1.3%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Syracuse). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	7h 37m	98%	80%
American Details →	SYR 06:00 → PHL 07:20AA 6095 · flown by Piedmont	3h 28m Philadelphia	PHL 10:48 → DFW 13:22AA 3326	8h 22m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	SYR 06:00 → LGA 07:14DL 5355 · flown by Endeavor	1h 16m New York	LGA 08:30 → DFW 11:15DL 873	6h 15m	89%	76%
American Details →	SYR 08:00 → CLT 10:11AA 1235	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 13:07 → DFW 14:49AA 1690	7h 49m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	SYR 12:30 → ATL 14:55DL 1375	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 17:37 → DFW 18:57DL 1827	7h 27m	99%	72%
American Details →	SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	2h 56m Philadelphia	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	8h 03m	96%	71%
American Details →	SYR 11:12 → BOS 12:31AA 4635 · flown by Republic	2h 06m Boston	BOS 14:37 → DFW 17:44AA 1442	7h 32m	99%	71%
United Details →	SYR 11:56 → ORD 13:15UA 4600 · flown by GoJet	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	7h 26m	95%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont	48m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	5h 44m	54%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON