Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 3534 at 06:05, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3534 SYR 06:05 → IAD 07:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3534 Republic	SYR 06:05	IAD 07:18	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 4860 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 06:00	IAD 07:28	10%	10%	0.0%	90%
UA 4840 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 10:30	IAD 11:55	10%	7%	3.2%	90%
UA 4362 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 14:55	IAD 16:23	22%	15%	12.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON