Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 1515 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Safest bet that day B6 1515 SYR 06:00 → JFK 07:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 9017 SYR 19:29 → JFK 20:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1515 JetBlue Flight history →	SYR 06:00	JFK 07:12	8%	5%	1.6%	92%
B6 9017 JetBlue	SYR 19:29	JFK 20:48	23%	10%	1.9%	no record
DL 5363 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 05:30	JFK 06:52	10%	6%	5.8%	90%
DL 5436 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 11:21	JFK 12:39	14%	5%	3.8%	86%
DL 5328 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 16:57	JFK 18:25	19%	10%	5.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON