Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3366 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3366 SYR 06:04 → ORD 07:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1440 SYR 17:42 → ORD 18:51 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3366 Envoy	SYR 06:04	ORD 07:22	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 342 United	SYR 06:08	ORD 07:17	12%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 4648 Republic	SYR 13:02	ORD 14:20	20%	3%	1.1%	no record
OO 5811 SkyWest	SYR 12:35	ORD 13:54	20%	7%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	SYR 17:03	ORD 18:25	23%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 1440 United	SYR 17:42	ORD 18:51	27%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON