Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2743 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2743 TPA 05:10 → ATL 06:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2723 TPA 18:12 → ATL 19:57 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2743 Delta	TPA 05:10	ATL 06:47	7%	2%	10.0%	no record
DL 1726 Delta Flight history →	TPA 06:15	ATL 07:50	9%	2%	10.0%	88%
WN 192 Southwest	TPA 10:08	ATL 11:53	9%	2%	7.4%	no record
DL 744 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:45	ATL 10:15	11%	3%	8.9%	90%
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:00	ATL 11:35	13%	3%	6.9%	90%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	ATL 12:52	13%	3%	5.4%	86%
DL 1486 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	ATL 09:07	13%	3%	10.0%	91%
F9 1853 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:00	ATL 09:01	13%	4%	12.1%	74%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:42	ATL 14:21	20%	4%	5.2%	80%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	TPA 13:44	ATL 15:23	20%	5%	5.2%	82%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:16	ATL 16:52	20%	5%	5.2%	72%
F9 4435 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:18	ATL 15:05	21%	10%	8.2%	63%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:58	ATL 21:02	23%	8%	2.9%	79%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:42	ATL 18:19	27%	6%	5.2%	80%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	TPA 17:58	ATL 19:45	28%	9%	4.5%	70%
WN 433 Southwest	TPA 18:13	ATL 19:58	29%	8%	3.1%	no record
DL 8862 Delta	TPA 17:54	ATL 19:27	32%	9%	5.4%	no record
F9 2723 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 18:12	ATL 19:57	32%	12%	7.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON