Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4139 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4139 TPA 06:19 → AUS 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1927 TPA 15:58 → AUS 17:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4139 Southwest	TPA 06:19	AUS 07:56	5%	1%	7.1%	no record
WN 4316 Southwest	TPA 12:18	AUS 14:09	17%	3%	3.5%	no record
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:44	AUS 14:26	17%	3%	4.6%	83%
WN 1927 Southwest	TPA 15:58	AUS 17:49	18%	5%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON