Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1663 at 11:03, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1663 Southwest	TPA 11:03	BDL 14:04	9%	3%	5.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 15:15 → MSP 17:44DL 2264	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → BDL 23:39DL 2871	8h 24m	97%	84%
American Details →	TPA 06:58 → DCA 09:34AA 2385	2h 25m Washington	DCA 11:59 → BDL 13:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA	6h 29m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814	7h 48m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BDL 18:50DL 2735	7h 36m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → BDL 15:14DL 2739	7h 44m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:12 → BDL 11:34DL 1082	5h 19m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 16:42 → ATL 18:19DL 1720	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	7h 12m	98%	75%
United Details →	TPA 18:57 → IAD 21:30UA 1370	55m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59UA 444	5h 02m	84%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798	2h 02m Miami	MIA 20:44 → BDL 23:55AA 1272	6h 27m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON