Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2215 at 16:03, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2215 Southwest	TPA 16:03	BHM 16:46	22%	6%	3.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TPA 11:38 → IAH 13:18UA 1979	1h 07m Houston	IAH 14:25 → BHM 16:20UA 6120 · flown by Mesa	5h 42m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012	4h 25m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	4h 40m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:04 → BHM 15:05DL 3163	4h 51m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:23DL 1099	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044	6h 17m	98%	75%
American Details →	TPA 15:00 → CLT 16:46AA 2915	3h 11m Charlotte	CLT 19:57 → BHM 20:37AA 5205 · flown by PSA	6h 37m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:16 → ATL 16:52DL 1525	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	5h 42m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → BHM 15:52DL 2484	4h 10m	93%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON