Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4623 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4623 TPA 07:07 → BNA 08:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3639 TPA 18:04 → BNA 19:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4623 Southwest	TPA 07:07	BNA 08:05	4%	1%	9.0%	no record
WN 4577 Southwest	TPA 10:03	BNA 11:18	7%	2%	6.0%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	TPA 12:44	BNA 13:46	16%	5%	9.8%	no record
WN 506 Southwest	TPA 16:03	BNA 17:08	20%	5%	4.7%	no record
WN 4724 Southwest	TPA 18:36	BNA 19:34	21%	6%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	TPA 18:04	BNA 19:05	22%	6%	5.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON