Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2406 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2406 TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 592 TPA 14:54 → BOS 18:02 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2406 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:00	BOS 10:09	5%	2%	8.6%	95%
B6 1192 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 06:30	BOS 09:33	7%	3%	7.3%	89%
DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:23	BOS 14:35	13%	4%	5.2%	78%
B6 692 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 11:34	BOS 14:42	19%	9%	4.4%	69%
DL 1811 Delta	TPA 16:17	BOS 19:30	24%	9%	4.7%	no record
B6 592 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 14:54	BOS 18:02	29%	16%	4.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON