Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1476 at 06:38, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1476 Southwest	TPA 06:38	BUF 09:20	4%	1%	11.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → BUF 15:48DL 1749	8h 03m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → LGA 10:15DL 2723	1h 37m New York	LGA 11:52 → BUF 13:38DL 5797 · flown by Republic	6h 08m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:55 → LGA 17:54DL 2195	1h 53m New York	LGA 19:47 → BUF 21:11DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 16m	94%	78%
JetBlue Details →	TPA 06:30 → BOS 09:33B6 1192	2h 32m Boston	BOS 12:05 → BUF 13:52B6 915	7h 22m	99%	76%
American Details →	TPA 12:03 → LGA 14:51AA 880	1h 24m New York	LGA 16:15 → BUF 17:53AA 4496 · flown by Republic	5h 50m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → BUF 16:13DL 2266	6h 13m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475	3h 38m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	8h 04m	99%	74%
JetBlue Details →	TPA 07:20 → JFK 10:10B6 226	3h 19m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902	7h 39m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON