Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4155 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4155 TPA 07:23 → BWI 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1538 TPA 18:18 → BWI 21:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4155 Southwest	TPA 07:23	BWI 10:00	5%	1%	11.8%	no record
WN 1789 Southwest	TPA 09:48	BWI 12:20	6%	2%	10.3%	no record
WN 845 Southwest	TPA 14:38	BWI 17:05	15%	4%	6.9%	no record
WN 404 Southwest	TPA 17:23	BWI 19:50	18%	5%	4.3%	no record
F9 1538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 18:18	BWI 21:02	19%	6%	4.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON