Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 2684 TPA 10:07 → CLE 12:44 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1492 TPA 21:08 → CLE 23:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2684 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 10:07	CLE 12:44	12%	4%	10.5%	86%
F9 2184 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 00:07	CLE 02:39	16%	5%	15.6%	72%
F9 1492 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 21:08	CLE 23:45	18%	7%	4.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON