Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 653 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 653 TPA 05:40 → CLT 07:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1982 TPA 16:24 → CLT 18:14 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 653 American	TPA 05:40	CLT 07:35	9%	3%	11.9%	no record
AA 2538 American Flight history →	TPA 08:53	CLT 10:43	13%	4%	9.2%	94%
AA 1704 American Flight history →	TPA 08:38	CLT 10:30	14%	4%	9.2%	91%
AA 1975 American	TPA 11:00	CLT 12:51	17%	5%	6.8%	no record
AA 436 American Flight history →	TPA 13:03	CLT 14:53	22%	6%	6.2%	84%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	TPA 15:00	CLT 16:46	29%	8%	6.7%	75%
AA 1974 American	TPA 18:13	CLT 19:58	30%	8%	3.4%	no record
AA 1982 American	TPA 16:24	CLT 18:14	32%	8%	6.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON