Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:25	CVG 20:42	15%	6%	1.6%	74%
F9 1303 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 17:22	CVG 19:44	17%	7%	2.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	5h 27m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → CVG 15:12DL 3169	5h 12m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858	6h 21m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 17:58 → ATL 19:45DL 759	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 41m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:16 → ATL 16:52DL 1525	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:31 → CVG 21:59DL 2248	6h 43m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149	5h 08m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → CVG 10:33DL 3160	4h 18m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 17:58 → ATL 19:45DL 759	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:31 → CVG 21:59DL 2248	4h 01m	60%	49%
American Details →	TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798	1h 03m Miami	MIA 19:45 → CVG 22:35AA 4115 · flown by Envoy	5h 07m	62%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON