Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4161 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4161 TPA 08:48 → DCA 11:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1944 TPA 18:58 → DCA 21:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4161 Southwest	TPA 08:48	DCA 11:14	5%	2%	11.7%	no record
AA 2385 American Flight history →	TPA 06:58	DCA 09:34	6%	2%	7.9%	100%
AA 1972 American	TPA 11:47	DCA 14:24	13%	5%	5.4%	no record
AA 1990 American	TPA 13:32	DCA 16:10	15%	6%	4.9%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	TPA 18:58	DCA 21:34	18%	7%	2.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON