Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4163 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4163 TPA 05:23 → DEN 07:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4166 TPA 16:48 → DEN 18:58 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4163 Southwest	TPA 05:23	DEN 07:08	5%	1%	7.1%	no record
WN 4164 Southwest	TPA 10:23	DEN 12:28	8%	2%	4.5%	no record
UA 1812 United	TPA 07:58	DEN 10:03	10%	4%	6.8%	no record
UA 683 United Flight history →	TPA 12:20	DEN 14:25	12%	4%	3.8%	87%
F9 1113 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 06:14	DEN 08:21	13%	4%	15.1%	85%
F9 2745 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:20	DEN 22:29	17%	6%	4.9%	75%
UA 1076 United	TPA 16:09	DEN 18:16	22%	6%	3.1%	no record
WN 4166 Southwest	TPA 16:48	DEN 18:58	22%	5%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON