Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1369 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1369 TPA 07:01 → DFW 08:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1957 TPA 17:11 → DFW 19:09 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1369 American Flight history →	TPA 07:01	DFW 08:55	10%	3%	7.0%	90%
AA 1628 American	TPA 09:02	DFW 10:49	13%	5%	6.4%	no record
AA 2516 American Flight history →	TPA 11:28	DFW 13:12	16%	6%	4.6%	77%
F9 1333 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 14:58	DFW 16:54	18%	9%	6.8%	84%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	TPA 14:25	DFW 16:14	23%	9%	4.8%	78%
AA 1957 American	TPA 17:11	DFW 19:09	28%	13%	4.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON