Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2439 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2439 TPA 06:09 → EWR 08:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1321 TPA 16:20 → EWR 19:02 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2439 United Flight history →	TPA 06:09	EWR 08:48	6%	3%	8.1%	96%
UA 2679 United	TPA 06:57	EWR 09:43	7%	3%	8.1%	no record
UA 2204 United Flight history →	TPA 08:09	EWR 10:56	8%	4%	7.2%	85%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	TPA 10:57	EWR 13:48	14%	7%	6.4%	87%
UA 392 United	TPA 19:08	EWR 22:02	24%	13%	2.5%	no record
UA 1117 United	TPA 15:55	EWR 18:51	27%	17%	4.9%	no record
UA 1321 United Flight history →	TPA 16:20	EWR 19:02	34%	16%	4.6%	94%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON