Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4468 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4468 TPA 06:01 → HOU 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest WN 4170 TPA 17:38 → HOU 19:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4468 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 06:01	HOU 07:25	5%	1%	11.7%	65%
WN 4169 Southwest	TPA 12:38	HOU 14:07	18%	4%	6.0%	no record
WN 4170 Southwest	TPA 17:38	HOU 19:07	20%	7%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON