Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 548 at 19:59, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 548 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 19:59	HPN 22:59	16%	9%	3.0%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → HPN 16:51DL 4680 · flown by Endeavor	9h 06m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	2h 52m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → HPN 15:56DL 4658 · flown by Endeavor	7h 26m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → HPN 14:40DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → HPN 18:11DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	6h 57m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:16 → ATL 16:52DL 1525	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616	7h 09m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 09:36 → HPN 12:04DL 2973	5h 49m	95%	72%
American Details →	TPA 13:03 → CLT 14:53AA 436	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 17:57 → HPN 20:04AA 5016 · flown by PSA	7h 01m	96%	71%
American Details →	TPA 08:33 → ORD 10:28AA 354	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → HPN 17:25AA 4112 · flown by Envoy	8h 52m	95%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 15:00 → CLT 16:46AA 2915	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 17:57 → HPN 20:04AA 5016 · flown by PSA	5h 04m	74%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON