Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2475 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2475 TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2726 TPA 16:50 → JFK 19:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2475 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:05	JFK 09:51	7%	2%	6.1%	94%
B6 226 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:20	JFK 10:10	13%	4%	5.5%	69%
DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	JFK 14:02	15%	4%	4.5%	87%
DL 2093 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:51	JFK 21:42	22%	7%	1.9%	78%
B6 2726 JetBlue	TPA 16:50	JFK 19:44	28%	13%	4.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON