Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 889 Southwest	TPA 16:13	LAS 18:14	29%	10%	5.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 15:15 → MSP 17:44DL 2264	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 21:42 → LAS 23:07DL 1442	10h 52m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	7h 41m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475	1h 39m New York	JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807	9h 56m	97%	78%
United Details →	TPA 07:00 → IAH 08:23UA 2491	3h 32m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	9h 13m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	TPA 06:01 → HOU 07:25WN 4468	1h 15m Houston	HOU 08:40 → LAS 09:50WN 4452	6h 49m	97%	77%
United Details →	TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156	9h 09m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → LAS 14:50DL 549	7h 50m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:26 → SLC 10:07DL 2045	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659	7h 35m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	48m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	6h 30m	75%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON