Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 538 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:31	LAX 09:25	13%	3%	5.5%	89%
UA 2019 United Flight history →	TPA 12:39	LAX 14:53	16%	6%	3.8%	94%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974	10h 14m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 17m	100%	79%
United Details →	TPA 11:38 → IAH 13:18UA 1979	3h 13m Houston	IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743	9h 30m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10DL 1090	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914	11h 07m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → LAX 17:20DL 301	9h 06m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 42m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852	2h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	9h 52m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	3h 37m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → LAX 22:13DL 694	11h 13m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON