Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2723 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2723 TPA 07:30 → LGA 10:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2195 TPA 14:55 → LGA 17:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2723 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	LGA 10:15	7%	2%	6.3%	88%
AA 539 American Flight history →	TPA 07:01	LGA 09:50	10%	3%	9.2%	87%
DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:50	LGA 15:39	17%	5%	4.5%	90%
AA 880 American Flight history →	TPA 12:03	LGA 14:51	18%	6%	6.2%	83%
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	TPA 14:55	LGA 17:54	21%	7%	4.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON