Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3438 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3438 TPA 07:33 → MDW 09:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 329 TPA 16:23 → MDW 18:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3438 Southwest	TPA 07:33	MDW 09:25	7%	1%	10.9%	no record
WN 937 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 13:53	MDW 15:45	16%	4%	6.9%	77%
WN 329 Southwest	TPA 16:23	MDW 18:20	22%	6%	6.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON