Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2199 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2199 TPA 05:59 → MIA 07:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2798 TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2199 American Flight history →	TPA 05:59	MIA 07:09	11%	3%	7.9%	85%
AA 1740 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	MIA 08:10	13%	4%	7.2%	95%
AA 593 American	TPA 10:03	MIA 11:18	23%	6%	4.5%	no record
AA 842 American	TPA 19:48	MIA 21:03	34%	12%	1.7%	no record
AA 2913 American	TPA 14:58	MIA 16:08	34%	11%	4.1%	no record
AA 2798 American Flight history →	TPA 17:28	MIA 18:42	38%	14%	2.3%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON