Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2263 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:45	MSP 10:02	7%	2%	5.9%	92%
DL 2264 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:15	MSP 17:44	11%	4%	3.0%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475	1h 44m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 45m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406	1h 43m Boston	BOS 11:52 → MSP 14:04DL 1103	8h 04m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 09:11 → RDU 11:04DL 1279	4h 00m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 15:04 → MSP 16:51DL 2521	8h 40m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 17:58 → ATL 19:45DL 759	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 41m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	TPA 13:53 → MDW 15:45WN 937	3h 14m Chicago	MDW 18:59 → MSP 20:30WN 4408	7h 37m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	7h 07m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:23 → BOS 14:35DL 2706	3h 20m Boston	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	9h 58m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 33m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 15:16 → ATL 16:52DL 1525	46m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	4h 59m	74%	59%
Delta Details →	TPA 16:42 → ATL 18:19DL 1720	47m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	5h 04m	62%	48%
American Details →	TPA 19:18 → ORD 21:31AA 1101	55m Chicago	ORD 22:26 → MSP 23:57AA 1048	5h 39m	65%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON