tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 331 at 06:48, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 331 Southwest TPA 06:48 MSY 07:45 4% 1% 12.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:58 → DCA 09:34AA 2385 1h 28m Washington DCA 11:02 → MSY 12:52AA 2586 6h 54m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 07m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 06:01 → HOU 07:25WN 4468 2h 52m Houston HOU 10:17 → MSY 11:35WN 683 6h 34m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:38 → IAH 13:18UA 1979 2h 07m Houston IAH 15:25 → MSY 16:33UA 2738 5h 55m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:00 → IAH 08:23UA 2491 3h 32m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 7h 14m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 43m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 5h 17m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678 6h 52m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → TPA 13:18 → ATL 15:05F9 4435 47m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → MSY 16:54F9 1371 4h 36m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON