Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2189 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2189 TPA 07:23 → ORD 09:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1779 TPA 17:54 → ORD 19:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2189 United Flight history →	TPA 07:23	ORD 09:19	12%	5%	10.2%	85%
AA 354 American Flight history →	TPA 08:33	ORD 10:28	14%	3%	9.1%	92%
UA 2223 United Flight history →	TPA 12:30	ORD 14:40	19%	8%	5.2%	85%
AA 3168 American	TPA 13:45	ORD 15:48	27%	9%	7.9%	no record
UA 2777 United	TPA 19:28	ORD 21:24	28%	9%	2.4%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	TPA 16:28	ORD 18:38	29%	9%	4.5%	61%
AA 1101 American Flight history →	TPA 19:18	ORD 21:31	29%	10%	3.3%	55%
UA 1779 United	TPA 17:54	ORD 19:51	30%	10%	3.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON