Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 2538 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day F9 2538 TPA 08:13 → PHL 11:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 809 TPA 16:07 → PHL 19:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 08:13	PHL 11:05	9%	5%	8.9%	68%
AA 2807 American Flight history →	TPA 10:59	PHL 13:38	12%	4%	6.1%	90%
AA 1981 American	TPA 12:37	PHL 15:29	17%	5%	6.1%	no record
F9 4808 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 17:16	PHL 20:24	18%	8%	4.9%	73%
F9 1474 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:10	PHL 15:00	18%	7%	8.1%	69%
AA 776 American	TPA 14:21	PHL 17:10	20%	7%	6.1%	no record
AA 2672 American	TPA 18:24	PHL 21:14	20%	8%	3.3%	no record
AA 809 American Flight history →	TPA 16:07	PHL 19:00	24%	9%	5.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON