Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3648 Southwest	TPA 13:48	PHX 15:38	17%	4%	3.5%	no record
AA 1402 American Flight history →	TPA 07:48	PHX 09:23	18%	4%	7.9%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	8h 01m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10DL 1090	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442	12h 25m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:26 → SLC 10:07DL 2045	1h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431	7h 35m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852	3h 48m Detroit	DTW 17:11 → PHX 18:15DL 1135	10h 34m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	8h 20m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836	9h 25m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	TPA 06:01 → HOU 07:25WN 4468	1h 03m Houston	HOU 08:28 → PHX 09:28WN 1744	6h 27m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	7h 18m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 13:03 → CLT 14:53AA 436	53m Charlotte	CLT 15:46 → PHX 17:10AA 3046	7h 07m	71%	48%
American Details →	TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798	1h 16m Miami	MIA 19:58 → PHX 21:51AA 2107	7h 23m	62%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON