tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4559 Southwest TPA 07:59 RDU 09:50 7% 2% 10.3% no record
DL 1279 Delta Flight history → TPA 09:11 RDU 11:04 8% 3% 7.9% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550 5h 57m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600 6h 11m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 12m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 5h 23m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097 6h 33m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 3h 17m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RDU 16:08DL 1407 7h 38m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → LGA 10:15DL 2723 1h 09m New York LGA 11:24 → RDU 13:04DL 2015 5h 34m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 5h 45m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 15:00 → CLT 16:46AA 2915 1h 08m Charlotte CLT 17:54 → RDU 18:53AA 1904 3h 53m 75% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON