tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 518 Alaska TPA 19:23 SAN 21:21 25% 6% 4.0% no record
WN 4175 Southwest TPA 13:48 SAN 16:00 27% 7% 3.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125 8h 40m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852 3h 12m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 10h 33m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10DL 1090 3h 39m Seattle SEA 13:49 → SAN 16:36DL 2572 12h 20m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:26 → SLC 10:07DL 2045 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 42m 90% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 23m Detroit DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761 8h 44m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:30DL 712 9h 48m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:38 → IAH 13:18UA 1979 3h 08m Houston IAH 16:26 → SAN 17:54UA 2798 9h 16m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 53m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:20 → EWR 19:02UA 1321 1h 02m Newark EWR 20:04 → SAN 22:57UA 1102 9h 37m 68% 41%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798 1h 31m Miami MIA 20:13 → SAN 22:33AA 3010 8h 05m 62% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON