tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4453 at 08:38, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4453 Southwest TPA 08:38 SAT 10:27 6% 2% 5.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 06:01 → HOU 07:25WN 4468 3h 43m Houston HOU 11:08 → SAT 12:20WN 4130 7h 19m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 13:53 → MDW 15:45WN 937 2h 34m Chicago MDW 18:19 → SAT 21:15WN 2982 8h 22m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:38 → IAH 13:18UA 1979 1h 28m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 5h 15m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465 6h 47m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 08m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:00 → IAH 08:23UA 2491 1h 13m Houston IAH 09:36 → SAT 10:51UA 1371 4h 51m 90% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 7h 05m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → TPA 08:09 → EWR 10:56UA 2204 1h 24m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 8h 12m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:58 → ATL 21:02DL 1425 53m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SAT 23:21DL 1508 5h 23m 72% 53%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:42 → ATL 18:19DL 1720 50m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → SAT 20:37DL 2893 4h 55m 64% 44%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798 1h 18m Miami MIA 20:00 → SAT 22:14AA 1468 5h 46m 60% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON