tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 400 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 400 Southwest TPA 06:58 SDF 09:20 5% 1% 10.2% no record
WN 2002 Southwest TPA 14:48 SDF 17:05 18% 4% 4.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587 2h 57m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 12m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195 5h 05m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126 6h 01m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481 5h 01m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831 6h 31m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:20 → EWR 19:02UA 1321 2h 01m Newark EWR 21:03 → SDF 23:24UA 3609 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:16 → ATL 16:52DL 1525 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842 6h 51m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374 4h 14m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 17:58 → ATL 19:45DL 759 54m Atlanta ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842 4h 09m 69% 55%
AmericanDetails → TPA 15:00 → CLT 16:46AA 2915 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 17:53 → SDF 19:18AA 2923 4h 18m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON