Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1090 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:16	SEA 10:10	20%	3%	4.6%	88%
AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	TPA 18:54	SEA 21:59	43%	11%	4.5%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 15m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:26 → SLC 10:07DL 2045	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	10h 09m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:31 → LAX 09:25DL 538	2h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045	10h 24m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 20m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	3h 46m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	11h 33m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	9h 43m	99%	75%
United Details →	TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331	1h 45m Dulles	IAD 13:07 → SEA 15:54UA 1824	9h 54m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852	3h 23m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	11h 01m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798	1h 53m Miami	MIA 20:35 → SEA 00:07 +1AA 3252	9h 39m	68%	44%
American Details →	TPA 15:00 → CLT 16:46AA 2915	54m Charlotte	CLT 17:40 → SEA 20:25AA 751	8h 25m	63%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON