tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1712 United TPA 06:57 SFO 09:46 12% 5% 7.1% no record
UA 1957 United TPA 15:22 SFO 18:02 25% 9% 3.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 2h 59m New York JFK 12:50 → SFO 16:03DL 363 11h 58m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 58m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 24m 91% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:42 → ATL 18:19DL 1720 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656 10h 15m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:31 → LAX 09:25DL 538 2h 37m Los Angeles LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689 9h 01m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → TPA 14:00 → IAD 16:22UA 1576 2h 20m Dulles IAD 18:42 → SFO 21:31UA 2832 10h 31m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → TPA 11:38 → IAH 13:18UA 1979 2h 12m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 8h 57m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 3h 53m Dulles IAD 15:15 → SFO 18:02UA 2862 12h 02m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:23 → BOS 14:35DL 2706 2h 30m Boston BOS 17:05 → SFO 20:51DL 1655 12h 28m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 18:58 → ATL 21:02DL 1425 46m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656 7h 59m 67% 50%
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223 46m Chicago ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 8h 48m 67% 40%
AmericanDetails → TPA 13:03 → CLT 14:53AA 436 50m Charlotte CLT 15:43 → SFO 18:14AA 2411 8h 11m 64% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON