Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2045 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:26	SLC 10:07	10%	2%	3.3%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	8h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:31 → LAX 09:25DL 538	3h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647	10h 32m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 20:20 → SLC 22:15DL 2117	10h 15m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10DL 1090	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	11h 24m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:42 → ATL 14:21DL 1587	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	9h 14m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 04m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:44 → AUS 14:26DL 487	3h 38m Austin	AUS 18:04 → SLC 20:02DL 2581	9h 18m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	7h 51m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798	1h 02m Miami	MIA 19:44 → SLC 23:05AA 1017	7h 37m	62%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON