tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4197 Southwest TPA 06:04 STL 07:27 4% 1% 11.1% no record
WN 4198 Southwest TPA 11:49 STL 13:15 12% 3% 4.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:15 → MSP 17:44DL 2264 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 7h 48m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587 3h 12m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 7h 37m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 5h 27m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 3h 25m Detroit DTW 14:33 → STL 15:17DL 1371 7h 47m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 13:53 → MDW 15:45WN 937 3h 24m Chicago MDW 19:09 → STL 20:30WN 670 7h 37m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 6h 25m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 6h 00m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:00 → IAH 08:23UA 2491 3h 33m Houston IAH 11:56 → STL 14:17UA 2042 8h 17m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:28 → MIA 18:42AA 2798 2h 12m Miami MIA 20:54 → STL 22:54AA 1594 6h 26m 75% 51%
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:20 → EWR 19:02UA 1321 1h 04m Newark EWR 20:06 → STL 21:43UA 2040 6h 23m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON