Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1259 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1259 TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2837 TUL 17:29 → ATL 20:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1259 Delta Flight history →	TUL 06:00	ATL 09:04	6%	3%	0.9%	93%
DL 2620 Delta Flight history →	TUL 12:43	ATL 15:44	11%	4%	0.9%	84%
DL 2754 Delta Flight history →	TUL 11:14	ATL 14:16	11%	4%	0.9%	94%
DL 2837 Delta Flight history →	TUL 17:29	ATL 20:32	19%	8%	2.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON