tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Houston IAH 07:44 → AUS 08:53UA 2376 3h 53m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Denver DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026 7h 02m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 7h 51m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 31m Houston IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859 6h 24m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491 7h 36m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:58 → DFW 07:28AA 1090 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:46 → AUS 09:54AA 794 3h 56m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 6h 34m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 5h 14m 89% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON