Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1729 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1729 American Flight history →	TUL 07:00	CLT 10:30	12%	5%	0.9%	92%
AA 2657 American	TUL 14:50	CLT 18:18	31%	8%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 31m	98%	84%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 24m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	8h 02m	98%	82%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Denver	DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231	8h 17m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158	6h 10m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	TUL 17:29 → ATL 20:32DL 2837	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 29m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:43 → ATL 15:44DL 2620	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	6h 24m	97%	74%
American Details →	TUL 06:50 → ORD 09:03AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 11:50 → CLT 14:54AA 3021	7h 04m	99%	73%
American Details →	TUL 05:58 → DFW 07:28AA 1090	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → CLT 13:24AA 2493	6h 26m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON