Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 381 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 381 Southwest	TUL 06:01	DAL 07:20	2%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2109 Southwest	TUL 16:51	DAL 18:10	17%	7%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	7h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 40m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON